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Tristan Poul

Featured Studies

A collection of my work spanning from personal experiments to educational endeavors.

NBA Prediction Model

NBA Game Prediction Model

6-model ensemble (LR, RF, GBM, XGBoost, LightGBM, MLP) trained on 30 seasons of NBA data. Compares predictions against Kalshi prediction markets and flags edge bets nightly.

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Small-Business LBO Simulator

Small-Business LBO Model

Interactive, pre-NDA, LBO model for small businesses: SBA + seller note + optional mezz & revolver, full sources/uses, debt schedule, FCFE, and exit analysis.

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NFL Model

Probabilistic NFL Model with Market Integration

Elo + logistic regression win probabilities, Polymarket comparison, Kelly allocator.

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Black-Scholes Options Pricing App

Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model

Developed an interactive financial modeling application in R, enabling users to calculate Black-Scholes option prices based on user-defined parameters dynamically.

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Double MA Backtester

Double-Moving Average Investment Strategy Backtester

Web app in R that optimizes returns for any given stock by trading a double moving average strategy. The web app optimizes SMA and LMA lengths to maximize returns and minimize downside risk.

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